We have all heard the saying: ?The difference between a pessimist and an optimist is the pessimist says the glass is half empty; the optimist says the glass is half full.?
I have just received an e-mail from a UK-based friend. She is sad that her friend has been forced to sell her Majorcan property at a loss. Such stories abound; the pessimists of the UK media love them.
First of all, a property?s value is irrelevant unless one is an insignificant minority actually selling ? or buying. It is tough if circumstances force you to sell at a loss. Very often those circumstances have little to do with the recession and many are self-inflicted: Perhaps obtaining a mortgage so high that it was agreed upon with crossed fingers on future market movements.
What about the lucky ones? The euro interest rates on mortgages are far lower and more easily obtained than are British mortgages. The exchange rates are improving so when one takes into account prices bottoming out buyers are purchasing at the same rate as they were when it was ?1.45 approx?. Ironically they were then queuing to buy properties in Spain.
For every selling loser (0.5%) there is a buyer with a smug grin on his or her face. Why not? They have just bought a beautiful villa at a price that an apartment used to go for. It is a pity that there aren?t more of us looking at the flip side of the coin and rejoicing in the good news. Why do we talk things down when the evidence suggests we should be talking them up?

mike_walsh - 12 July 2009 10:52 AM

It is a pity that there aren?t more of us looking at the flip side of the coin and rejoicing in the good news. Why do we talk things down when the evidence suggests we should be talking them up?

I guess it depends on loyalty.

Most estate agents are liars.

Not huge lies that could catch them out, but sales type lies that as your the “expert” your tellin the truth and the mug or client as there referred to, will believe you, if your wrong it`s due to unforeseen market conditions etc.

Spanish banks are being hit hard by clients who are handing back keys to property, auctions aren`t doin much, so banks are holdin onto repossessed property waiting for market to improve.

Sure there is a buyers market in Spain, but it will fall further as buyers in the rest of the world are either waiting or the average intelligent + investor’s are goin to more promising countries.

Spain was full of amature investers who were able to use funds from equity on property at home, as with UK repossesions the majority are second home owners buyin as investment in the rental sector, they over stretched the funds, which coped in the boom, but were doomed in a slow down.They had no reserve finance available and had no experience or understanding of the market place.

Same in Spain, many idiots financed themselves not to cope in a slow down but only in a boom, they never realised or hoped it would never end.

The Spanish market was based on many factures comin together at the right time.

That time I`m afraid will probably never return in Spain.

I think you are right with Spain, though we are now noticing an increase in the number of enquiries for CHEAP property, the usual 2 bed apartment which 12 months ago was 100K now going for 60K and as you say many owners are just selling to clear the mortgage and get out.

I am not sure though, if the market will fail to come back, Brits love Spain with the usual places still being high on the list of places to move to or buy in. I know the number of Brits going abroad this year has dropped, but it has dropped in most Countries as the financial uncertainty hangs around. The improvement in the pound will have an impact and slowly people will start to move in the market and Spain will remain a favorite due to the familiarity and ease of access.

Those selling are looking for what they paid for the place, they are not taking into consideration the change in the pound, plus the reduction in the capital gains tax, so it needs a better thought process when selling not just look at figures you owe.

I feel the market is now back to where it was in the early 80’s and the build will be slow for the next few years, but there will be growth, until in about 5 years there will be a reasonable market and a renewed growth for the next 10 years and then there will be another crash, the way to success is knowing when the crash will start and end and to buy outside those times. I feel we are now almost at the start, now is the time to start looking and asking the questions on price, make an offer and if not accepted, then move on until you find what you want at a price you want to pay, though as the bottom is reached, then the price expectation will also increase for the vendor.

damatt - 12 July 2009 04:36 PM

Brits love Spain with the usual places still being high on the list of places to move to or buy in. I know the number of Brits going abroad this year has dropped, but it has dropped in most Countries as the financial uncertainty hangs around. The improvement in the pound will have an impact and slowly people will start to move in the market and Spain will remain a favorite due to the familiarity and ease of access.

Many brits buy in Spain because of low cost airlines, large equity at home.

Take away the equity and the market drops.

Investers who invest to make cash are different ands are still buying, just not in Spain.

Spain was the place many average Joe Public choose to buy.

A great investment has to be under ?50,000 grand in an emerging market, not a ?250,000 in a property boom market.

Some friends of mine took my advice a few years ago in Turkey, paid ?35,000 on a med property 1st line of beach, they recently had it valued at 145,000 Euro`s.

More recently the official culture in Spain has been antipathetic towards the tourists and the potential buyers market. As a direct consequence tourist numbers to the Costas are down by a breathtaking 22%.  Turkey has had a YoY increase of 13%. As I write there has been a 3.65% increase this year. So to blame the recession on Spain’s woes is not the full picture.
The attitude of the authorities here is delporable. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find that corrupt officials in the Greek and Turkish tourist authorities have been passing brown envelopes to Spain’s policy makers.
I know of one professional band that is now looking for a position on the cruise liners. The number of times the Guardia Civil have come into a bar to tell them to stop playing (35 decibels limit) or they will close the place. As one diner said: “If they’re trying to turn the clock back then the declining numbers of visitors will soon turn Benidorm back into a fishing village.”
As party-poopers the police here can best be described as Talibanic. It is the same on the roads for travelling tourists. The cash-strapped police are having a turkey shoot. If the tourist does make it to the beaches and tosses a ball (Benidorm) the fine can exceed the price of a holiday. It is probably safer to holiday in Afghanistan at the moment - until they see the writing on the wall.
Ryanair numbers are well up; so are easyJet’s. Greece has ‘suffered’ only a manageable 7% drop in tourism. It is NOT the recession. Another musician said it was easier to perform in Franco’s Spain. That says it all.

I think there are a couple of points here.

1. With regards to paying ?35K and then a valuation of 140K well it is just that, a valuation it is not a selling price or a price someone would get for the property. A property is only worth what someone will pay for it.

2. The decrease in the number to Spain will also be attributed to the lack of value in the pound against the euro, other Europeans are still going to Spain and buying in Spain. So the current economic climate will have an effect on tourism and buyers.

I agree Turkey has an attraction, but the 4 hour flight is a disadvantage so it will attract buyers but it will be a limited number as with Bulgaria, my feeling is that Italy will start to build as a holiday home market for Brits with prices for apartments under ?50K. Maybe Croatia may start and recover to what it was prior to the problems in that area some years ago, I know tourism has increased and will continue to do so.

damatt - 12 July 2009 06:26 PM

I think there are a couple of points here.

1. With regards to paying ?35K and then a valuation of 140K well it is just that, a valuation it is not a selling price or a price someone would get for the property. A property is only worth what someone will pay for it.

You are absolutely right.

damatt - 12 July 2009 06:26 PM

2. The decrease in the number to Spain will also be attributed to the lack of value in the pound against the euro, other Europeans are still going to Spain and buying in Spain. So the current economic climate will have an effect on tourism and buyers.

True, and has Brits make up a substantial tourist market for spain, when the UK in in financial turmoil, Spain is affected. When the economy in the UK bounces back, so will the number of tourist numbers. Interestingly with August being quite bad in the UK it will be interesting to see if there is a spike in tourism arrivals to spain.

damatt - 12 July 2009 06:26 PM

I agree Turkey has an attraction, but the 4 hour flight is a disadvantage so it will attract buyers but it will be a limited number as with Bulgaria, my feeling is that Italy will start to build as a holiday home market for Brits with prices for apartments under ?50K. Maybe Croatia may start and recover to what it was prior to the problems in that area some years ago, I know tourism has increased and will continue to do so.

Let us also not forget culture, legal system and the general perception of countries like Turkey. I am sure it is a lovely country, etc… but it is still a poor country with a large uneducated population.

damatt - 12 July 2009 06:26 PM

2. The decrease in the number to Spain will also be attributed to the lack of value in the pound against the euro, other Europeans are still going to Spain and buying in Spain. So the current economic climate will have an effect on tourism and buyers.

 

Not a factor.

The exchange rate is in positive, by which your not getting less for your money.

Anybody in the UK putting off a holiday to the EU zone just because there earning 40 cents less per ? is an idiot, thankfull thats not the case.

There either prefering the UK due to lack of future confidence or there goin to different locations.